Global Markets, Local Pressures: Key takeaways from IFA’s Global Markets Conference 2025

The global fertilizer market is shaped by a complex mix of factors, from developments in agriculture, energy markets and decarbonization, to geopolitics, conflict and the global economy. For market participants navigating this ever-changing landscape, it is crucial to have an understanding of the various drivers, along with emerging trends, regional differences, and potential disruptors.

On 1-2 July 2025, IFA held its annual Global Markets Conference in London, UK to provide key insights on these issues. The event was attended by 135 delegates from 77 companies and 32 countries. More than 30 speakers shared their expertise with delegates and this blog post summarizes the key themes from their presentations.

1. The fertilizer industry is facing continued uncertainty

Delegates heard from experts in geopolitics, shipping and supply chain optimization who highlighted key implications of global fragmentation, trade disruption and political turmoil on the fertilizer markets. The industry is navigating through a complex range of challenges that have caused disruption to local affordability, investment economics and shipping routes around the world. These include rising geopolitical tensions, higher costs, pressure to decarbonize, technological barriers and impact of tariffs throughout the supply chain.

Geopolitical risks have risen beyond expectations in 2025, including the escalation of conflicts in the Black Sea, Middle East and South Asia. Furthermore, tariffs have exceeded levels last seen in World War 2, reversing four decades of trade liberalization. These developments have played out against weakening global cooperation and declining efficacy of traditional multilateral bodies. The combined effect of these factors is a redrawing of trade routes, pressure on seaborne trade volumes, rising insurance premia and increased supply chain costs. Delegates heard how global GDP growth is weakening and the 2026-27 electoral cycles in major economies could be decisive.

Major global crop markets, which provide an important backdrop to fertilizer demand, face a growing supply surplus which have pressured crop prices. Speakers covering the agricultural markets cited how corn and soybean trade patterns are shifting due to tariffs, and overall demand is plateauing in conventional markets as population growth falls. In the long term, biofuel demand in new sectors such as aviation grade biofuels could outpace growth in the agricultural sector by utilizing novel crops in current crop rotations, presenting upside for fertilizer demand.

2 - Supply chain resilience moves up the agenda while sustainability stalls in some markets

Speakers cited common themes in the security of supply chains, with fertilizers being increasingly recognized as strategic commodities that should be protected from global disruptions to support food security. Supply chain risks have sharply increased year-on-year in 2025, with higher rates of cyber-attacks, extreme weather, protests (strikes), regulatory shifts and tariffs. Organizations that act early to prepare their supply chains were shown to better withstand disruption and build resilience, using tools such as investing upstream and diversification of supply sources in order to mitigate risks.

Adapting to supply chain risks comes alongside the challenge of decarbonizing the sector. Many stakeholders are overwhelmed by the volume of climate-related data and increasingly unsure of its accuracy. Speakers described how decarbonizing is challenging and costly because the past century has seen energy-intensive industries rely on fossil fuel optimization. Moving to lower carbon feedstock requires overcoming high capital costs and fragmented technological pathways. This is highlighted by the example of low-carbon ammonia, where over 400 projects have been announced but only a small fraction are expected to be built in the medium-term. At the same time, unique opportunities exist beyond supply decarbonization, such as new demand for ammonia as a marine fuel.

Delegates heard that in the long-term, supply chains need to adapt to changes in population dynamics, with population growth in traditional fertilizer markets plateauing or declining. Global population growth by 2050 will be concentrated in regions such as Africa, where fertilizer use remains the lowest and supply chains are beset with a range of difficulties. Major exporters must prepare to serve fast growing regions, where food and nutrient use will surge, particularly in net importing markets. Nonetheless, even in some established markets there exist barriers to increase fertilizer use. For example, in Argentina, low fertilizer rates limits yields and profitability because of short-term land leases, economic uncertainty and high tax pressure.

3 - The market outlook for fertilizers varies by nutrient and region, while emerging demand areas show strong potential

Despite varying markets outlooks, all products are grappling with volatility, changing trade flows, policy changes and declining affordability. Fertilizer demand is expected to continue its recovery from the affordability-driven lows of 2022 and 2023, although the rebound has not been linear and large diversions are forecast to remain in local conditions.

Short-term fertilizer affordability was less favorable in the first half of 2025 as a result of comparatively weaker agricultural markets and higher fertilizer prices. Presenters showed how affordability can lead to fertilizer demand destruction, with farmers showing a precedent for skipping and P and K applications in favor of N as the priority nutrient for most crops. Farm margins in Brazil and the US remain above the decade average, although lower than in recent years.

Speakers commented that the markets for specialty and value-added fertilizers (VAFs) are expanding rapidly from a low base, typically with growth rates of 5-6%, far higher than growth in traditional products. These products are applied mainly through fertigation and foliar applications. VAFs combine nutrients with functional or enhancement components for added value. Despite the significant growth potential of specialty and VAFs, low uptake remains a challenge due to affordability, limited farmer education, high investment costs and regulatory complexity.

Outside of agriculture, the substantial growth in the electric vehicle sector is driving demand for phosphates in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which has potential implications for crop inputs. LFP batteries require phosphorous, which can be sourced from either purified phosphoric acid (PPA) or technical MAP (tMAP). Case studies showed that tMAP is a popular water soluble specialty fertilizer, but global phosphorous demand for batteries is projected to grow at a CAGR at 22% in the medium-term with the potential to consume all available tMAP capacity. A single electric vehicle (EV) battery can contain between 280-410 kg of tMAP, and growing battery demand for phosphates could pose a challenge to agricultural supply chains. However, new and emerging demand uses also provide opportunities for investment and innovation, which delegates heard may expand beyond China in the medium-term.

Key takeaways

The fertilizer market is facing disruption from continued uncertainty due to a set of evolving challenges centered around heightened geopolitical risks, impact of tariffs, higher costs and the need to decarbonize.

In terms of strategic implications, organizations that can invest early and adapt their supply chains, adopt technology to decarbonize and focus on farmer driven solutions, will be well placed to manage risks in the future.

Fertilizers remain a strategic commodity more than ever, and its dual roles in driving food security and decarbonization efforts present opportunities for investment in the coming years.

We would like to thank all of the speakers who shared their insights at this year’s conference, which showed the importance of staying on top of rapidly changing global trends and the unique set of opportunities and challenges facing the fertilizer markets.

IFA’s Market Intelligence Service is tracking these drivers and more, and members can access reports, analysis and outlooks by visiting www.IFASTAT.org. If you would like to present at next year’s conference, please contact Laura Cross.