Source: "Fertilizer Requirements in 2015 and 2030", FAO, Rome, 2000.

During the next 30 years, global cereal production must increase substantially to satisfy an increment in demand resulting from an increase in the world's population and an improvement of the overall standard of living in developing countries.

Agricultural production by farmers in developing countries is not keeping pace with this increase in demand.

In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, a significant part of the increased cereal production could result from an increase in the cultivated area, but in other regions of the world it must come from higher yields. This will require an increased use of fertilizers, coupled with greater efficiency of their use.  In West Europe the quantity of fertilizer applied today is the same as it was in 1970 whereas the average yield of wheat, for example, has more than doubled. A similar increase of efficiency has been achieved in North America.

Assuming a slow-down in the growth of world population and crop production and an improvement in fertilizer use efficiency, it is forecast that total fertilizer use, will have to increase from the present level of 138 million tonnes N+P₂O₅+K₂O to between 167 and 199 million tonnes per year by 2030, resulting in growth rates of between 0.7 and 1.3 percent per annum. This compares with an annual rate of increase over the past 30 years of 2.4% per annum.

Most of the increase will be in South and East Asia and in North and South America.

2^nd edition, October 2002