The World, 1920/21 to 2000/01 - Outlook to 2030

1950 to 1989. During this period, with temporary setbacks notably due to the oil crises in the 1970s, there was a sustained increase of world mineral fertilizer consumption, which increased from 14 to 143 million tonnes N+P₂O₅+K₂O, nitrogen, phosphate and potash, or almost 6% per annum.

1989/90 to 1993/94. During these four years world fertilizer consumption fell by 23 Mt, from 143 to 120 Mt total nutrients. The reduction was due to a 23 Mt decline of fertilizer nutrient use in the countries of Central Europe and of the Former Soviet Union, the FSU, and also, to a lesser extent, a fall of almost 5 Mt in West Europe. The falls were partly offset by increases in Asia.

1993/94 to 1999/2001. During this period, world total nutrient consumption increased from 120 to an average of 138 Mt. Consumption in Socialist Asia, South Asia and Latin America increased, that of West Europe stabilized while demand in the FSU fell again.

By 1996 world nitrogen consumption had regained its 1989 level, with increases in developing countries offsetting falls in Europe and the FSU. However, world phosphate consumption remains below its 1988/89 peak (33 versus 38 Mt P2O5), as does that of potash (22 versus 28 Mt K2O).

During the period 1998/99 to 2000/01 Socialist Asia, mostly China, accounted for 27% of world fertilizer consumption, South Asia, mostly India for 16%, North America, mostly the USA also for 16%, West Europe for 12% and Latin America for 8% i.e. all together for almost four fifths of total world consumption.  Sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa accounted for 1%.

Thirty-Year Outlook*

Since the end of the 1970s, The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the FAO, has prepared forecasts of worldwide yields and areas.  According to the latest survey, the projected absolute increment in world crop production from 1995/97 to 2030, i.e. 34 years, will be 57%. The rate of increase will be greater in developing countries than in developed countries. The developing countries should account for 72% of world crop production in 2030 compared with 53% in 1961/63.

Future fertilizer requirements have been related to FAO's latest forecasts of worldwide crop yields and areas*. In order to attain the yields projected by the FAO, it is forecast that fertilizer consumption will have to increase from the present level of 138 million tonnes N+P2O5+K2O to between 167 and 199 million tonnes per year by 2030. This represents an annual growth rate of between 0.7 and 1.3 percent per annum, which compares with an average annual increase of 2.3% p.a. between 1970 and 2000.

Most of the increase will be in South and East Asia and in North and South America.

*  "Fertilizer Requirements in 2015 and 2030" FAO, Rome. 2000