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In June 2002, at the World Food Summit: Five Years Later, global leaders
renewed their 1996 commitment to halve the number of world's hungry by
2015. The Rome Declaration recognizing "the right of everyone to have
access to safe and nutritious food, consistent with the right to
adequate food and the fundamental right of everyone to be free from
hunger", adopted at the 1996 World Food Summit, had already been
reaffirmed in the United Nations' Millennium Declaration.
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World Food Demand and
Supply
The world
population has doubled over the last 40 years, from three billion in
1960 to six billion in 2000 and is currently increasing at a rate of 90
million people per year. Most of the growth is in developing countries,
a great number of which are already experiencing food deficits. The Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reports that
more than 800 million people are chronically malnourished. The need for
more accessible and better food arises from the necessity to alleviate
poverty and malnutrition.
Much of
the future population increase will take place in the cities of the
developing world, where urban populations are expected to double by
2020. When people in developing countries move to cities, they generally
shift from diets based on roots, tubers and maize toward one rich in
rice and wheat, meat, milk, fruits, vegetables and processed foods.
The
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) forecasts a 39 per
cent increase in cereal demand between 1995 and 2020, and a 58 per cent
increase in meat demand. Almost all of these increases will come from
the developing world. Strong meat demand will double developing
countries' feed-grain demand. To meet the demand increases, farmers will
have to produce 40 per cent more grain in 2020, with four-fifths coming
from yield increases rather than farmland expansion.
Contribution of
Fertilizers
Fertilizers accounted for 30 to 50 per cent of the total increase in
crop production during the 1960-2000 period. Cereal production doubled
during these four decades.
More than
40 per cent of the world dietary protein is currently derived from
nitrogen (N) fertilizers.
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Africa, increasing population pressure and cultivation of
marginal areas are leading to various types of land degradation
and a serious decline of soil production potential. Problem
soils with various constraints (low fertility, acidity,
salinity, poor drainage) cover approximately 72 per cent of the
total land area in Africa.
FAO estimates
that yield increases in South and Central America between
1961 and 1997 accounted for about half of increased agricultural
production in the region, the other half coming from the
expansion of land under cultivation. Average yields in South and
Central America have increased during the past decade thanks to
improved management practices, as well as better plant
varieties, improved fertilizers and other crop inputs. Between
1979 and 1999, cereal yields in South America increased by 66
per cent from 1.3 tonnes per hectare to 2.4 tonnes per hectare,
while the average fertilizer application rate rose by 33 per
cent from 64 kilograms per hectare to 84 kilograms per hectare.
In Asia,
the population continues to increase, as does the standard of
living, with a consequent growth in the demand for agricultural
products. However, the area of arable land per capita is almost
half that of 40 years ago and, according to FAO, has reached low
levels in several countries. Inadequate fertilization practices
in Asia have led to soil nutrient depletion and a progressive
reduction in the soil production potential. It is estimated that
between 1945 and 1990, nutrient depletion in Asia caused light
degradation of 4.6 million hectares, moderate degradation of
nine million hectares and severe degradation of a further one
million hectares. Despite the high population growth rate and
the limited land availability, cereal production per capita in
Asia has increased significantly in the past 40 years since the
start of the Green Revolution. More intensive cultivation of the
available land has been made possible, in part, by a large
increase in the use of fertilizers applied to new,
fertilizer-responsive varieties, together with an expansion of
the irrigated area.
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Sustainability
In the
long term, it will only be possible to feed the growing world population
through sustainable agriculture that includes, among other factors,
stewardship in water and soil management and fertilizer use. Modern
biotechnology will play a key role in this respect through the
development of plant varieties and associated symbiotic organisms with
enhanced water and plant nutrient use efficiency, and of
herbicide-tolerant varieties adapted to no-till farming practices.
To
maintain soil fertility and productivity, to prevent land degradation
and desertification and to alleviate soil nutrient mining and erosion,
nutrients taken by crops must be replenished through the appropriate
application of fertilizers, in addition to biofixation and organic
sources of plant nutrients.
The use
of commercial inputs, such as fertilizers, has generated questions about
the sustainability of intensive agriculture, but research on good
farming practices shows that agricultural development and environmental
protection are compatible and mutually supportive. In fact, in
developing countries, sustainability is often threatened by the
expansion of cultivation into marginal areas prone to degradation, a
trend that can be reversed only by increasingly intensive cultivation of
more favourable areas.
IFA's Position
IFA
emphasizes the strategic role of plant nutrients to achieve sustainable
world food security.
IFA
promotes responsible and appropriate use of fertilizers and supports
stewardship in soil management to both meet food supply requirements and
benefit the environment in the long term.
December 2002
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